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Yes, but also no. When you’re phrasing something like the OP(“despite what you might think, it’s actually quite rare!”) you’re not talking about the observed rarity. You’re talking about the difference between expected rarity and observed rarity. The expected rarity in Mouse Ears And Cold Beers Kind Of Girl Shirt this case is roughly every 28 years since I’d say that’s what the average person would guess. It turns out that it’s actually every 19 years, because of the Metonic cycle that I’m TILing right now. So really, this should be a case of “despite what you might think, it’s actually not so rare!” Wow, that’s pretty cool about the Metonic cycle.
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Over the very long haul, it will be once every 29.53 years. But if I’m understanding this right, a particular date (say, October 31) will get a full moon every 19 years for roughly 24 cycles (because the cycle is off by roughly one hour), but then once the. Cycle no longer lands on Mouse Ears And Cold Beers Kind Of Girl Shirt that date (it moves to November 1), it will take hundreds of years before there’s another full moon on that date. If my sports team wins every 2 years between 2000-2010, except go on a 50-year drought and doesn’t win again until 2060, that doesn’t mean it’s common even if I was lucky to see them win a lot in the early 2000s.